**Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium**
Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Women's Asia Cup · 2024 · Women

ThailandversusSri Lanka

24 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 10 wickets

Thailand20.0 overs93/7 Sri Lanka11.3 overs94/0 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

21%Thailand79%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Thailand (1,661 vs 1,519 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 3 and Thailand won 1
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 19%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 0% to 20% during the match (Sri Lanka: 80% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: WGAKK Kulasuriya to N Boochatham, N Boochatham out. Sri Lanka up from 80% to 87%.
2.5: SIP Fernando to A Suwanchonrathi, A Suwanchonrathi out. Sri Lanka up from 81% to 86%.
10.2: WK Dilhari to C Sutthiruang, C Sutthiruang out. Sri Lanka up from 88% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand93/7 Sri Lanka94/0

Innings 1

Thailand

93/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nattaya Boochathambowled · Achini Kulasuriya 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Achini Kulasuriya	0	1	0	0	0.00
Aphisara Suwanchonrathicaught · Kavisha Dilhari · Inoshi Priyadharshani 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kavisha Dilhari · b Inoshi Priyadharshani	12	9	3	0	133.33
Nannapat Koncharoenkainot out 5 fours · 0 sixes	not out	47*	53	5	0	88.68
Phannita Mayacaught · Kavisha Dilhari · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kavisha Dilhari · b Chamari Atapattu	2	18	0	0	11.11

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Achini Kulasuriya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	1	6.67	0	0
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	0	0
Inoshi Priyadharshani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	10	1	3.33	1	0
Udeshika Prabodhani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	0	4.33	1	0
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	13	2	3.25	1	1
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	15	1	5.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/1
2	1	10/1
3	6	16/2
4	6	22/2
5	1	23/2
6	5	28/2
7	5	33/2
8	1	34/2
9	3	37/2
10	5	42/3
11	4	46/4
12	1	47/4
13	3	50/4
14	3	53/5
15	1	54/6
16	6	60/6
17	5	65/6
18	9	74/6
19	6	80/6
20	13	93/7

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