GloucestershireversusNorthamptonshire

15 Jul 2026 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 8 wickets

Gloucestershire20.0 overs152/10 Northamptonshire17.4 overs153/2 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 40%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Northamptonshire is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 0% to 49% during the match (Northamptonshire: 51% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: DJ Willey to DJ Malan, DJ Malan out. Northamptonshire up from 58% to 72%.
1.4: BW Sanderson to GL van Buuren, GL van Buuren out. Northamptonshire up from 72% to 81%.
11.4: JJG Sales to JMR Taylor, JMR Taylor out. Northamptonshire up from 51% to 59%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire152/10 Northamptonshire153/2

Innings 1