Washington FreedomversusTexas Super Kings

19 Jul 2024 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Washington Freedom won by 42 runs

Washington Freedom20.0 overs206/5 Texas Super Kings19.5 overs164/10 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Washington Freedom started on 53%; Washington Freedom batted first.

Washington Freedom’s chance of winning (%) · Texas Super Kings is the rest

Washington Freedom's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (Texas Super Kings: 0% to 46%).

Biggest swings

6.5: Noor Ahmad to R Ravindra, R Ravindra out. Texas Super Kings up from 21% to 27%.
2nd inns 7.1: Jasdeep Singh to AM Hardie, AM Hardie out. Washington Freedom up from 62% to 71%.
2nd inns 9.4: R Ravindra to J Tromp, J Tromp out. Washington Freedom up from 80% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Washington Freedom206/5 Texas Super Kings164/10

Innings 1