Hong KongversusQatar

10 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 68 runs

Hong Kong20.0 overs197/7 Qatar19.1 overs129/10 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

67%Hong Kong33%Qatar

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 3 and Qatar won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Qatar (1,519 vs 1,481 on our results rating)
Hong Kong are playing at home in Hong Kong

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 65%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Qatar is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 63% to 100% during the match (Qatar: 0% to 37%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.5: A Shukla to R Theruvath, R Theruvath out. Hong Kong up from 85% to 90%.
2nd inns 3.3: Ateeq Iqbal to Ikramullah Khan, Ikramullah Khan out. Hong Kong up from 86% to 92%.
2nd inns 5.1: Ehsan Khan to A Nagarajan, A Nagarajan out. Hong Kong up from 89% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong197/7 Qatar129/10

Innings 1

Hong Kong

197/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Zeeshan Alicaught · Jassim Khan · Mujeeb Ur Rehman 7 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jassim Khan · b Mujeeb Ur Rehman	38	25	7	0	152.00
Anshuman Rathcaught · Jassim Khan · Mohammed Irshad 7 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Jassim Khan · b Mohammed Irshad	58	42	7	1	138.10
Nizakat Khancaught · Jassim Khan · Mujeeb Ur Rehman 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jassim Khan · b Mujeeb Ur Rehman	7	8	1	0	87.50
Babar Hayatcaught · Mohammad Abrar · Mohammed Irshad 1 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Mohammad Abrar · b Mohammed Irshad	42	23	1	4	182.61
Yasim Murtazacaught · Mujeeb Ur Rehman · Mohammed Irshad 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Mujeeb Ur Rehman · b Mohammed Irshad	10	7	0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Bipin Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	43	0	10.75	0	1
Muhammad Jabir0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	28	1	9.33	1	1
Bukhar Illikkal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	26	0	13.00	0	0
Ikramullah Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	29	0	14.50	0	0
Mujeeb Ur Rehman0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	0	1
A Nagarajan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	1	0
Mohammed Irshad0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	4	8.00	7	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	4	8/0
3	14	22/0
4	14	36/0
5	16	52/0
6	14	66/0
7	5	71/0
8	9	80/0
9	4	84/1
10	8	92/1
11	7	99/2
12	10	109/2
13	11	120/2
14	8	128/2
15	10	138/3
16	17	155/3
17	2	157/5
18	16	173/5
19	12	185/6
20	12	197/7

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