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Photo: Birdy10
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Region Final · 2025 · Men
11 Jul 2025 · T20
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 49%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 4% to 54% during the match (Jersey: 46% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseybowled · Harrison Carlyon 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Harrison Carlyon | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Ollie Hairscaught · Jonty Jenner · Harrison Carlyon 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jonty Jenner · b Harrison Carlyon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Brandon McMullenbowled · Charles Perchard 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Charles Perchard | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Richie Berringtoncaught · Zak Tribe · Benjamin Ward 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Zak Tribe · b Benjamin Ward | 20 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 111.11 |
| Charlie Tearcaught · Julius Sumerauer · Harrison Carlyon 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Julius Sumerauer · b Harrison Carlyon | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Michael Leaskcaught · Jonty Jenner · Benjamin Ward 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Jonty Jenner · b Benjamin Ward |
| 15 |
| 18 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 83.33 |
| Matty Crossnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 43* | 40 | 3 | 0 | 107.50 |
|---|
 Mark Wattbowled · Julius Sumerauer3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Julius Sumerauer | 28 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Chris Greavesnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 8* | 2 | 0 | 1 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Carlyon0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 6.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Charles Perchard0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominic Blampied0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Ward0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Julius Sumerauer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Greenwood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Ollie Hairs, 0.3) · 2-8 (Brandon McMullen, 1.4) · 3-13 (George Munsey, 2.3) · 4-26 (Charlie Tear, 4.3) · 5-43 (Richie Berrington, 7.0) · 6-64 (Michael Leask, 10.5) · 7-125 (Mark Watt, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8/2 |
| 3 | 6 | 14/3 |
| 4 | 4 | 18/3 |
| 5 | 11 | 29/4 |
| 6 | 10 | 39/4 |
| 7 | 4 | 43/5 |
| 8 | 6 | 49/5 |
| 9 | 6 | 55/5 |
| 10 | 5 | 60/5 |
| 11 | 4 | 64/6 |
| 12 | 4 | 68/6 |
| 13 | 6 | 74/6 |
| 14 | 6 | 80/6 |
| 15 | 2 | 82/6 |
| 16 | 4 | 86/6 |
| 17 | 10 | 96/6 |
| 18 | 17 | 113/6 |
| 19 | 7 | 120/6 |
| 20 | 13 | 133/7 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
