IndiaversusNew Zealand

8 Mar 2026 · T20

Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 96 runs

India20.0 overs255/5 New Zealand19.0 overs159/10 Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

85%India15%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,888 vs 1,696 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and New Zealand won 2 (1 tied)
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 84%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

India's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 18%).

Biggest swings

0.5: MJ Henry to SV Samson, six by SV Samson. India up from 82% to 85%.
2.2: JA Duffy to Abhishek Sharma, four by Abhishek Sharma. India up from 84% to 86%.
2nd inns 2.4: AR Patel to FH Allen, FH Allen out. India up from 95% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India255/5 New Zealand159/10

Innings 1

India

255/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sanju Samsoncaught · CE McConchie · James Neesham 5 fours · 8 sixes	caught · CE McConchie · b James Neesham	89	46	5	8	193.48
Abhishek Sharmacaught · Tim Seifert · Rachin Ravindra 6 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Tim Seifert · b Rachin Ravindra	52	21	6	3	247.62
Ishan Kishancaught · Mark Chapman · James Neesham 4 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Mark Chapman · b James Neesham	54	25	4	4	216.00
Hardik Pandyacaught · Mitchell Santner · Matt Henry 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Mitchell Santner · b Matt Henry

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Matt Henry0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	49	1	12.25	4
Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	5	0	5.00	0
Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	42	0	14.00	1
Lockie Ferguson0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	48	0	24.00	3
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	0	8.25	0
Rachin Ravindra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	32	1	16.00	0
James Neesham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	46	3	11.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	5	12/0
3	15	27/0
4	24	51/0
5	21	72/0
6	20	92/0
7	6	98/0
8	12	110/1
9	5	115/1
10	12	127/1
11	10	137/1
12	24	161/1
13	10	171/1
14	20	191/1
15	12	203/1
16	1	204/4
17	7	211/4
18	9	220/4
19	11	231/5
20	24	255/5

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