West IndiesversusAustralia

6 Feb 2024 · ODI

Manuka Oval, Canberra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 8 wickets

West Indies24.1 overs86/10 Australia6.5 overs87/2 Manuka Oval, Canberra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

13%West Indies87%Australia

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Australia rate stronger than West Indies (1,810 vs 1,521 on our results rating)
Australia are playing at home in Australia
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, Australia won 8 and West Indies won 2

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 11%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 15% during the match (Australia: 85% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.5: XC Bartlett to KY Ottley, KY Ottley out. Australia up from 85% to 92%.
10.3: LR Morris to KU Carty, KU Carty out. Australia up from 89% to 92%.
11.3: SA Abbott to SD Hope, SD Hope out. Australia up from 92% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies86/10 Australia87/2

Innings 1

West Indies

86/1024.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Alick Athanazecaught · Sean Abbott · Adam Zampa 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sean Abbott · b Adam Zampa	32	60	2	0	53.33
Kjorn Ottleylbw · Xavier Bartlett 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Xavier Bartlett	8	7	2	0	114.29
Keacy Cartycaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Lance Morris 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Lance Morris	10	22	0	0	45.45
Shai Hopelbw · Sean Abbott 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sean Abbott	4	5	1	0	80.00
Teddy Bishopbowled · Lance Morris 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Lance Morris	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	7.1	0	21	4	2.93	5
Cameron Green0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	18	0	6.00	2
Sean Abbott0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	1	3.50	1
Lance Morris1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.3	1	13	2	2.89	1
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	0	14	2	2.80	1
Will Sutherland0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	0.3	0	5	0	10.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	10	12/0
3	1	13/1
4	6	19/1
5	2	21/1
6	2	23/1
7	4	27/1
8	6	33/1
9	2	35/1
10	1	36/1
11	6	42/2
12	1	43/3
13	1	44/4
14	6	50/4
15	5	55/4
16	3	58/4
17	0	58/4
18	5	63/4
19	6	69/4
20	4	73/5
21	1	74/7
22	2	76/7
23	9	85/8
24	1	86/9
25	0	86/10

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