PakistanversusNew Zealand

27 Apr 2024 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 9 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs178/5 New Zealand19.2 overs169/10 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

32%Pakistan68%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Pakistan (1,592 vs 1,507 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 8 and Pakistan won 2
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 31%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 11% to 95% during the match (New Zealand: 5% to 89%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.1: Imad Wasim to CE McConchie, CE McConchie out. Pakistan up from 40% to 66%.
2nd inns 14.2: Shaheen Shah Afridi to JDS Neesham, JDS Neesham out. Pakistan up from 37% to 66%.
2nd inns 18.2: Abbas Afridi to JA Clarkson, six by JA Clarkson. New Zealand up from 26% to 55%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan178/5 New Zealand169/10

Innings 1

Pakistan

178/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Saim Ayubcaught · Michael Bracewell · William O’Rourke 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Michael Bracewell · b William O’Rourke	1	5	0	0	20.00
Mohammad Babar Azambowled · Ben Sears 6 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Ben Sears	69	44	6	2	156.82
Usman Khancaught · Michael Bracewell · Ish Sodhi 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Michael Bracewell · b Ish Sodhi	31	24	3	1	129.17
Fakhar Zamancaught · Mark Chapman · Zakary Foulkes 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Mark Chapman · b Zakary Foulkes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	35	1	8.75	3	1
William O’Rourke0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	2	0
Ben Sears0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	46	1	11.50	2	0
Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	0	9.33	0	0
Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	0	0
James Neesham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	1	13.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	2	10/1
3	13	23/1
4	15	38/1
5	8	46/1
6	5	51/1
7	9	60/1
8	15	75/1
9	6	81/2
10	5	86/2
11	4	90/2
12	8	98/2
13	11	109/2
14	7	116/2
15	7	123/3
16	7	130/3
17	9	139/3
18	19	158/3
19	13	171/4
20	7	178/5

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