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West Indies tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
17 Oct 2024 · T20
Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 71%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 75% during the match (Sri Lanka: 25% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingbowled · Mahesh Theekshana 3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 121.05 |
| Evin Lewisbowled · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Shai Hopecaught · Pathum Nissanka · Wanindu Hasaranga2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 18 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 72.00 |
 Roston Chasecaught and bowled · Kamindu Mendis0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kamindu Mendis | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61.54 |
| bowled · b Charith Asalanka |
| 6 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 120.00 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · Bhanuka Rajapaksa · Matheesha Pathirana 1 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Bhanuka Rajapaksa · b Matheesha Pathirana | 37 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 137.04 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiestumped · Kusal Mendis · Wanindu Hasaranga 1 fours · 3 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 32 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 213.33 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdbowled · Nuwan Thushara 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Nuwan Thushara | 18 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 138.46 |
|---|
| Fabian Allennot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 1 | 1 | 0 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 13.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 5 | 0 |
1-5 (Evin Lewis, 0.4) · 2-42 (Brandon King, 5.3) · 3-53 (Roston Chase, 9.0) · 4-55 (Shai Hope, 9.5) · 5-62 (Sherfane Rutherford, 11.1) · 6-116 (Gudakesh Motie, 15.3) · 7-147 (Rovman Powell, 19.0) · 8-160 (Romario Shepherd, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 12 | 17/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 22/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 31/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 37/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 42/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 46/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 49/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 53/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 55/4 |
| 11 | 7 | 62/4 |
| 12 | 6 | 68/5 |
| 13 | 10 | 78/5 |
| 14 | 8 | 86/5 |
| 15 | 25 | 111/5 |
| 16 | 7 | 118/6 |
| 17 | 5 | 123/6 |
| 18 | 12 | 135/6 |
| 19 | 12 | 147/7 |
| 20 | 15 | 162/8 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
