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Australia Women tour of India · 2023/24 · Women
2 Jan 2024 · ODI
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 75%; Australia batted first.
Australia's chances ranged from 75% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 25%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Deepti Sharma16 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Deepti Sharma | 119 | 125 | 16 | 1 | 95.20 |
 Alyssa Healybowled · Pooja Vastrakar4 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Pooja Vastrakar | 82 | 85 | 4 | 3 | 96.47 |
 Ellyse Perrylbw · Amanjot Kaur3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Amanjot Kaur | 16 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 177.78 |
 Beth Mooneylbw · Shreyanka Patil0 fours · 0 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Shreyanka Patil |
| 3 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 30.00 |
 Tahlia McGrathlbw · Shreyanka Patil0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shreyanka Patil | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Ashleigh Gardnerbowled · Shreyanka Patil4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shreyanka Patil | 30 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 111.11 |
|---|
 Annabel Sutherlandcaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Amanjot Kaur2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Amanjot Kaur | 23 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 109.52 |
|---|
 Georgia Warehamnot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 8 | 2 | 0 | 137.50 |
|---|
 Alana Kingnot out1 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 26* | 14 | 1 | 3 | 185.71 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 20 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Renuka Singh0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 7.43 | 9 | 0 |
 Pooja Vastrakar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 68 | 1 | 6.80 | 3 | 0 |
| Shreyanka Patil0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 3 | 5.70 | 1 | 0 |
| Mannat Kashyap0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Amanjot Kaur0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 70 | 2 | 7.00 | 6 | 0 |
1-189 (Alyssa Healy, 28.5) · 2-209 (Ellyse Perry, 32.1) · 3-216 (Beth Mooney, 35.1) · 4-216 (Tahlia McGrath, 35.2) · 5-256 (Phoebe Litchfield, 40.0) · 6-295 (Annabel Sutherland, 46.0) · 7-299 (Ashleigh Gardner, 46.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 37/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 45/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 48/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 54/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 55/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 60/0 |
| 12 | 12 | 72/0 |
| 13 | 7 | 79/0 |
| 14 | 11 | 90/0 |
| 15 | 3 | 93/0 |
| 16 | 7 | 100/0 |
| 17 | 4 | 104/0 |
| 18 | 2 | 106/0 |
| 19 | 8 | 114/0 |
| 20 | 6 | 120/0 |
| 21 | 10 | 130/0 |
| 22 | 8 | 138/0 |
| 23 | 11 | 149/0 |
| 24 | 13 | 162/0 |
| 25 | 6 | 168/0 |
| 26 | 7 | 175/0 |
| 27 | 7 | 182/0 |
| 28 | 3 | 185/0 |
| 29 | 8 | 193/1 |
| 30 | 2 | 195/1 |
| 31 | 6 | 201/1 |
| 32 | 8 | 209/1 |
| 33 | 2 | 211/2 |
| 34 | 1 | 212/2 |
| 35 | 4 | 216/2 |
| 36 | 7 | 223/4 |
| 37 | 11 | 234/4 |
| 38 | 6 | 240/4 |
| 39 | 10 | 250/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 256/5 |
| 41 | 6 | 262/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 266/5 |
| 43 | 5 | 271/5 |
| 44 | 8 | 279/5 |
| 45 | 9 | 288/5 |
| 46 | 7 | 295/6 |
| 47 | 4 | 299/7 |
| 48 | 9 | 308/7 |
| 49 | 11 | 319/7 |
| 50 | 19 | 338/7 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pooja Vastrakar: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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