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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
9 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Italy more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Italy started on 69%; Italy batted first.
Italy's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Luxembourg: 0% to 48%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Moscacaught · SKS Gill · A Nanda 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · SKS Gill · b A Nanda | 28 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 200.00 |
| Syed Naqvirun out · William Cope · Milad Momend 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · William Cope | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Joe Burnscaught · M Cope · V Vijh 2 fours · 4 sixes | caught · M Cope · b V Vijh | 58 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 138.10 |
| AJ Moscacaught and bowled · A Nanda 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b A Nanda | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Harry Manentirun out · S Kushretha · M Cope 3 fours · 1 sixes | run out · S Kushretha | 30 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 115.38 |
| Marcus Campopiano |
| caught · M Cope · b Milad Momend |
| 26 |
| 18 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 144.44 |
| Gian-Piero Meadenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Zain Alicaught · A Nanda · V Vijh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Nanda · b V Vijh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Gareth Bergnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 12* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 171.43 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Kushretha0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 8.25 | 1 | 0 |
| A Nanda0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 2 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Milad Momend0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| William Cope0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15.00 | 1 | 0 |
| V Vijh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
| M Cope0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 3 | 0 |
1-27 (Syed Naqvi, 3.0) · 2-33 (J Mosca, 3.4) · 3-33 (AJ Mosca, 3.5) · 4-80 (Harry Manenti, 11.2) · 5-152 (Marcus Campopiano, 18.0) · 6-152 (Joe Burns, 18.1) · 7-152 (Zain Ali, 18.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 27/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 33/3 |
| 5 | 5 | 38/3 |
| 6 | 6 | 44/3 |
| 7 | 6 | 50/3 |
| 8 | 15 | 65/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 69/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 73/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 80/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 81/4 |
| 13 | 9 | 90/4 |
| 14 | 12 | 102/4 |
| 15 | 11 | 113/4 |
| 16 | 17 | 130/4 |
| 17 | 19 | 149/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 152/5 |
| 19 | 7 | 159/7 |
| 20 | 7 | 166/7 |
Gareth Berg: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
