IrelandversusSri Lanka

11 Aug 2024 · T20

Pembroke Cricket Club, Sandymount, Dublin · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 7 wickets

Ireland20.0 overs145/6 Sri Lanka16.4 overs149/3 Pembroke Cricket Club, Sandymount, Dublin ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

41%Ireland59%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Ireland (1,712 vs 1,649 on our results rating)
Ireland are playing at home in Ireland
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 1 and Ireland won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 37%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 68% during the match (Sri Lanka: 32% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.1: BMSM Kumari to A Hunter, A Hunter out. Sri Lanka up from 54% to 61%.
2nd inns 1.2: A Canning to RMVD Gunaratne, six by RMVD Gunaratne. Sri Lanka up from 46% to 53%.
2nd inns 10.1: C Murray to H Madavi, six by H Madavi. Sri Lanka up from 82% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland145/6 Sri Lanka149/3

Innings 1

Ireland

145/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Amy Huntercaught · Inoshi Priyadharshani · Sugandika Kumari 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Inoshi Priyadharshani · b Sugandika Kumari	17	12	2	0	141.67
Gaby Lewiscaught · Nilakshi de Silva · Udeshika Prabodhani 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Udeshika Prabodhani	39	33	5	0	118.18
Orla Prendergaststumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · Inoshi Priyadharshani 2 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Inoshi Priyadharshani	29	27	2	0	107.41
Laura Delanyrun out · Kavisha Dilhari · Sugandika Kumari 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Kavisha Dilhari	25	21	2	0	119.05
Leah Paulcaught · Sachini Nisansala · Inoshi Priyadharshani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sachini Nisansala · b Inoshi Priyadharshani

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Udeshika Prabodhani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0	0
Inoshi Priyadharshani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	0	0
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	1	5.75	0	0
Achini Kulasuriya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	0	6.50	0	0
Sachini Nisansala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	0	9.00	0	0
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	2	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	12	13/0
3	4	17/0
4	7	24/0
5	5	29/1
6	5	34/1
7	8	42/1
8	6	48/1
9	11	59/1
10	14	73/1
11	8	81/1
12	13	94/2
13	2	96/3
14	5	101/3
15	7	108/3
16	4	112/4
17	6	118/4
18	9	127/4
19	8	135/5
20	10	145/6

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