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Photo: St Kitts & Nevis Government; permission: https://www.flickr.com/photos/skngov/14733563912
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Bangladesh Women tour of West Indies · 2024/25 · Women
24 Jan 2025 · ODI
Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 39%; Bangladesh batted first.
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (West Indies: 48% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fargana Hoquelbw · Afy Fletcher1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Afy Fletcher | 22 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 33.85 |
 Murshida Khatuncaught · Shemaine Campbelle · Cherry-Ann Fraser0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shemaine Campbelle · b Cherry-Ann Fraser | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Sharmin Akhtercaught · Jannillea Glasgow · Hayley Matthews5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jannillea Glasgow · b Hayley Matthews | 37 | 58 | 5 | 0 | 63.79 |
 Nigar Sultana |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Deandra Dottin · b Zaida James |
| 11 |
| 29 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 37.93 |
| Sobhana Mostarycaught · Cherry-Ann Fraser · Karishma Ramharack 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cherry-Ann Fraser · b Karishma Ramharack | 25 | 62 | 2 | 0 | 40.32 |
|---|
 Fahima Khatunrun out · Shemaine Campbelle, Mandy Mangru · Zaida James1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shemaine Campbelle, Mandy Mangru | 7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53.85 |
|---|
| Shorna Akterlbw · Karishma Ramharack 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karishma Ramharack | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Rabeya Khanbowled · Karishma Ramharack 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Karishma Ramharack | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Nahida Aktercaught · Hayley Matthews · Zaida James0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hayley Matthews · b Zaida James | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Marufa Akternot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 19 | 0 | 0 | 5.26 |
|---|
| Fariha Trisnalbw · Karishma Ramharack 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karishma Ramharack | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deandra Dottin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Cherry-Ann Fraser0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 7 | 0 |
| Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Hayley Matthews3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 1.90 | 1 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 2.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Zaida James2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 2.14 | 0 | 0 |
 Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.5 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 1.76 | 3 | 0 |
1-6 (Murshida Khatun, 2.0) · 2-68 (Fargana Hoque, 19.3) · 3-74 (Sharmin Akhter, 22.3) · 4-94 (Nigar Sultana, 30.5) · 5-107 (Fahima Khatun, 34.5) · 6-108 (Shorna Akter, 35.4) · 7-108 (Rabeya Khan, 36.0) · 8-111 (Nahida Akter, 38.4) · 9-118 (Sobhana Mostary, 43.2) · 10-118 (Fariha Trisna, 43.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 12 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 27/1 |
| 8 | 10 | 37/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 40/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 49/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 49/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 52/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 57/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 58/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 60/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 63/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 65/1 |
| 18 | 2 | 67/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 68/1 |
| 20 | 1 | 69/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 70/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 73/2 |
| 23 | 1 | 74/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 77/3 |
| 25 | 0 | 77/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 78/3 |
| 27 | 1 | 79/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 83/3 |
| 29 | 7 | 90/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 91/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 98/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 100/4 |
| 33 | 0 | 100/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 102/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 107/5 |
| 36 | 1 | 108/7 |
| 37 | 1 | 109/7 |
| 38 | 1 | 110/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 111/8 |
| 40 | 2 | 113/8 |
| 41 | 0 | 113/8 |
| 42 | 4 | 117/8 |
| 43 | 1 | 118/8 |
| 44 | 0 | 118/10 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Deandra Dottin: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Murshida Khatun: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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