AustraliaversusPakistan

10 Nov 2024 · ODI

Perth Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 8 wickets

Australia31.5 overs140/9 Pakistan26.5 overs143/2 Perth Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

72%Australia28%Pakistan

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Australia rate stronger than Pakistan (1,786 vs 1,693 on our results rating)
Australia are playing at home in Australia
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, Australia won 7 and Pakistan won 3

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 70%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 0% to 80% during the match (Pakistan: 20% to 100%).

Biggest swings

6.1: Shaheen Shah Afridi to AM Hardie, AM Hardie out. Pakistan up from 24% to 36%.
10.5: Naseem Shah to JP Inglis, JP Inglis out. Pakistan up from 27% to 42%.
26.6: Naseem Shah to A Zampa, A Zampa out. Pakistan up from 51% to 64%.

Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia140/9 Pakistan143/2

Innings 1

Australia

140/931.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Matthew Shortcaught · Irfan Khan · Haris Rauf 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Irfan Khan · b Haris Rauf	22	30	1	0	73.33
Jake Fraser-McGurkcaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Naseem Shah 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Naseem Shah	7	9	1	0	77.78
Aaron Hardiecaught · Salman Ali Agha · Shaheen Afridi 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Shaheen Afridi	12	13	2	0	92.31
Josh Ingliscaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Naseem Shah 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Naseem Shah	7	19	1	0	36.84
Cooper Connollyretired hurt · Mohammad Hasnain0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shaheen Afridi1 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	8.5	1	32	3	3.62	7
Naseem Shah0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	9.0	0	54	3	6.00	5
Mohammad Hasnain0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	0	24	1	3.43	3
Haris Rauf1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	1	24	2	3.43	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/0
2	6	18/0
3	2	20/0
4	2	22/1
5	0	22/1
6	14	36/1
7	5	41/2
8	6	47/2
9	1	48/2
10	6	54/2
11	3	57/3
12	2	59/3
13	6	65/3
14	7	72/4
15	2	74/4
16	4	78/4
17	1	79/4
18	2	81/5
19	6	87/5
20	0	87/5
21	3	90/6
22	4	94/6
23	7	101/6
24	6	107/6
25	4	111/6
26	2	113/6
27	5	118/7
28	2	120/7
29	5	125/7
30	8	133/7
31	7	140/7
32	0	140/9

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