EnglandversusNew Zealand

20 Oct 2025 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 65 runs

England20.0 overs236/4 New Zealand18.0 overs171/10 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

48%England52%New Zealand

Why

New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than New Zealand (1,704 vs 1,680 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 45%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

England's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 55%).

Biggest swings

0.2: MJ Henry to PD Salt, six by PD Salt. England up from 45% to 51%.
1.6: JA Duffy to JC Buttler, JC Buttler out. New Zealand up from 37% to 50%.
5.6: MG Bracewell to JG Bethell, JG Bethell out. New Zealand up from 29% to 37%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England236/4 New Zealand171/10

Innings 1

England

236/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Philip Saltcaught · Michael Bracewell · Kyle Jamieson 11 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Michael Bracewell · b Kyle Jamieson	85	56	11	1	151.79
Jos Buttlercaught · Mitchell Santner · Jacob Duffy 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mitchell Santner · b Jacob Duffy	4	3	1	0	133.33
Jacob Bethellcaught · James Neesham · Michael Bracewell 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · James Neesham · b Michael Bracewell	24	12	2	2	200.00
Harry Brookcaught · Tim Robinson · Kyle Jamieson 6 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Tim Robinson

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	0	11.25	0	0
Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	44	1	11.00	1	0
Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	47	2	11.75	1	0
Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	36	1	12.00	2	0
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	0	10.25	0	0
James Neesham0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	20	0	20.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/0
2	13	24/1
3	4	28/1
4	9	37/1
5	10	47/1
6	21	68/2
7	7	75/2
8	5	80/2
9	19	99/2
10	11	110/2
11	8	118/2
12	20	138/2
13	12	150/2
14	6	156/2
15	21	177/2
16	9	186/2
17	10	196/2
18	9	205/4
19	18	223/4
20	13	236/4

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