Adelaide StrikersversusSydney Sixers

29 Oct 2024 · T20

North Sydney Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Adelaide Strikers won by 11 runs

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs171/10 Sydney Sixers20.0 overs160/9 North Sydney Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 53%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Sixers is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 10% to 99% during the match (Sydney Sixers: 1% to 90%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.3: D Brown to EA Perry, EA Perry out. Adelaide Strikers up from 33% to 45%.
2nd inns 15.2: A Wellington to SJ Bryce, six by SJ Bryce. Sydney Sixers up from 50% to 63%.
2nd inns 18.6: ML Schutt to C Bray, C Bray out. Adelaide Strikers up from 68% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers171/10 Sydney Sixers160/9

Innings 1