NamibiaversusKenya

26 Sept 2025 · T20

Harare Sports Club · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Namibia won by 136 runs

Namibia20.0 overs241/5 Kenya20.0 overs105/7 Harare Sports Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Namibia more likely to win

54%Namibia46%Kenya

Why

In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Namibia won 2 and Kenya won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Kenya rate stronger than Namibia (1,546 vs 1,511 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 51%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Kenya: 0% to 58%).

Biggest swings

1.6: P Koech to MB Kruger, MB Kruger out. Kenya up from 41% to 52%.
7.2: DM Gondaria to JN Frylinck, JN Frylinck out. Kenya up from 41% to 50%.
8.3: Vraj Patel to JN Loftie-Eaton, JN Loftie-Eaton out. Kenya up from 47% to 58%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia241/5 Kenya105/7

Innings 1

Namibia

241/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Malan Krugercaught · Dhiren Gondaria · Peter Langat 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dhiren Gondaria · b Peter Langat	5	6	1	0	83.33
Jan Frylinckbowled · Dhiren Gondaria 6 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Dhiren Gondaria	33	17	6	0	194.12
Louren Steenkampcaught · Pushkar Sharma · Dhiren Gondaria 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Pushkar Sharma · b Dhiren Gondaria	11	10	2	0	110.00
Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Sukhdeep Singh · Sachin Gill 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Sukhdeep Singh · b Sachin Gill	58	32	5	3	181.25
Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Dhiren Gondaria · Vraj Patel0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sachin Gill0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	0
Peter Langat0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	62	1	15.50	4
Lucas Oluoch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	52	0	13.00	1
Dhiren Gondaria0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	2	7.50	0
Vraj Patel0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	1	10.33	3
Vishil Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	25	0	12.50	0
Jasraj Kundi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	16	0	16.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	9	15/1
3	9	24/1
4	16	40/1
5	9	49/1
6	7	56/2
7	3	59/2
8	8	67/3
9	6	73/4
10	7	80/4
11	6	86/4
12	18	104/4
13	19	123/4
14	16	139/4
15	27	166/4
16	5	171/5
17	11	182/5
18	19	201/5
19	27	228/5
20	13	241/5

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