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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
2 Nov 2024 · ODI
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 51%; United States of America batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayan Jahangircaught and bowled · Gulsan Jha 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Gulsan Jha | 10 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 41.67 |
| Monank Patelcaught · Gulsan Jha · Sandeep Lamichhane 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Gulsan Jha · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 67 | 81 | 5 | 1 | 82.72 |
| Aaron Jonescaught · R Dhakal · Sandeep Lamichhane 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Dhakal · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 26 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 130.00 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallacaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Gulsan Jha 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Gulsan Jha | 75 | 87 | 4 | 1 | 86.21 |
| Sanjay Krishnamurthicaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Kushal Bhurtel 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Kushal Bhurtel |
United States of America's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 51%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 22 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 68.18 |
| Harmeet Singhcaught · Anil Sah · Gulsan Jha 3 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Anil Sah · b Gulsan Jha | 59 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 134.09 |
|---|
| Utkarsh Srivastavacaught · Anil Sah · Sompal Kami 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anil Sah · b Sompal Kami | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Shadley van Schalkwykcaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Sompal Kami 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Sompal Kami | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| Jasdeep Singhnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Aarif Sheikh0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.2 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 5.06 | 5 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 87 | 3 | 8.70 | 2 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Kushal Malla1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 7.17 | 2 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-23 (Shayan Jahangir, 6.1) · 2-64 (Aaron Jones, 12.0) · 3-152 (Monank Patel, 30.1) · 4-182 (Sanjay Krishnamurthi, 36.1) · 5-216 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 41.2) · 6-237 (Utkarsh Srivastava, 44.4) · 7-265 (Shadley van Schalkwyk, 49.0) · 8-281 (Harmeet Singh, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 23/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 24/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 28/1 |
| 9 | 13 | 41/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 49/1 |
| 11 | 11 | 60/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 64/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 66/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 71/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 71/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 78/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 80/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 83/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 86/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 89/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 93/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 97/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 100/2 |
| 24 | 13 | 113/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 120/2 |
| 26 | 9 | 129/2 |
| 27 | 9 | 138/2 |
| 28 | 3 | 141/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 146/2 |
| 30 | 6 | 152/2 |
| 31 | 2 | 154/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 158/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 163/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 169/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 174/3 |
| 36 | 8 | 182/3 |
| 37 | 8 | 190/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 194/4 |
| 39 | 7 | 201/4 |
| 40 | 8 | 209/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 214/4 |
| 42 | 6 | 220/5 |
| 43 | 6 | 226/5 |
| 44 | 9 | 235/5 |
| 45 | 4 | 239/6 |
| 46 | 5 | 244/6 |
| 47 | 5 | 249/6 |
| 48 | 10 | 259/6 |
| 49 | 6 | 265/7 |
| 50 | 16 | 281/8 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
