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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier C · 2026 · Men
17 Aug 2026 · T20
Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Germany more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Israel started on 21%; Israel batted first.
Israel's chances ranged from 0% to 22% during the match (Germany: 78% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSLK Narayanarun out · B Kohler-Cadmore, Harmanjot Singh · V Jatinder Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · B Kohler-Cadmore, Harmanjot Singh | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| SF Mangodalbw · PD Dabholkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b PD Dabholkar | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Niv Nagavkarbowled · Ahmad Ullah 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Ahmad Ullah | 21 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Yair Nagavkarbowled · Muslim Yar 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Muslim Yar | 16 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 133.33 |
| S Bangeracaught and bowled · Ahmad Ullah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Ahmad Ullah | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
| run out · B Kohler-Cadmore, Harmanjot Singh |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| AL Khuntibowled · V Jatinder Kumar 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b V Jatinder Kumar | 13 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 56.52 |
|---|
| BJ Lazaruslbw · V Jatinder Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b V Jatinder Kumar | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| JE Markscaught · PD Dabholkar · Shahid Afridi (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · PD Dabholkar · b Shahid Afridi (2) | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 63.64 |
|---|
| Yogev Nagavkarnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 63.64 |
|---|
| Elan Talkerrun out · Ahmed Wardak, Ahmad Ullah · Ahmed Wardak 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ahmed Wardak, Ahmad Ullah | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PD Dabholkar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 2 | 0 |
| V Jatinder Kumar1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Muslim Yar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Ullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Shahid Afridi (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmed Wardak0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.5 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 7.09 | 3 | 0 |
1-4 (SF Mangoda, 1.0) · 2-14 (WSLK Narayana, 3.3) · 3-37 (Yair Nagavkar, 6.3) · 4-47 (Niv Nagavkar, 7.5) · 5-52 (G Schachat, 9.1) · 6-53 (S Bangera, 10.0) · 7-72 (AL Khunti, 15.2) · 8-73 (BJ Lazarus, 15.5) · 9-84 (JE Marks, 18.3) · 10-94 (Elan Talker, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 14/2 |
| 5 | 10 | 24/2 |
| 6 | 11 | 35/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 39/3 |
| 8 | 9 | 48/4 |
| 9 | 4 | 52/4 |
| 10 | 1 | 53/6 |
| 11 | 2 | 55/6 |
| 12 | 9 | 64/6 |
| 13 | 1 | 65/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 68/6 |
| 15 | 3 | 71/6 |
| 16 | 2 | 73/8 |
| 17 | 3 | 76/8 |
| 18 | 6 | 82/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 87/9 |
| 20 | 7 | 94/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.