**Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra**
Photo: Amuzujoe
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

African Games · 2023/24 · Men

ZimbabweversusNamibia

17 Mar 2024 · T20

Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 35 runs

Zimbabwe20.0 overs197/6 Namibia20.0 overs162/8 Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Namibia more likely to win

26%Zimbabwe74%Namibia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Namibia rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,612 vs 1,491 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Namibia won 7 and Zimbabwe won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 25%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Namibia is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 22% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 78%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.6: O Muzondo to MB Kruger, MB Kruger out. Zimbabwe up from 35% to 49%.
2nd inns 9.3: T Musekiwa to JP Kotze, JP Kotze out. Zimbabwe up from 48% to 62%.
2nd inns 10.4: T Munyonga to JN Loftie-Eaton, JN Loftie-Eaton out. Zimbabwe up from 54% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe197/6 Namibia162/8

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

197/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Rodney Mupfudzarun out · JC Balt · Ben Shikongo 4 fours · 1 sixes	run out · JC Balt	32	22	4	1	145.45
Tadiwanashe Marumanicaught · Ben Shikongo · SPS Shikongo 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ben Shikongo · b SPS Shikongo	1	3	0	0	33.33
Johnathan Campbellcaught · Niko Davin · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Niko Davin · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton	39	28	2	3	139.29
Brian Bennettrun out · Malan Kruger · Jack Brassell 4 fours · 3 sixes	run out · Malan Kruger	65	39	4	3	166.67

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Jack Brassell0 maidens · 1 wides · 3 no-balls	4.0	59	0	14.75	1	3
SPS Shikongo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	1	4.50	0	0
Ben Shikongo0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	50	0	12.50	2	0
JC Balt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	0	7.00	0	0
Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	0	0
Shaun Fouché0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	0	0
GJ van Rensburg0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	1	11.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/0
2	3	14/1
3	14	28/1
4	6	34/1
5	13	47/1
6	8	55/2
7	4	59/2
8	10	69/2
9	7	76/2
10	9	85/2
11	10	95/2
12	4	99/3
13	8	107/3
14	8	115/3
15	11	126/4
16	5	131/5
17	13	144/5
18	14	158/5
19	23	181/6
20	16	197/6

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