Melbourne RenegadesversusHobart Hurricanes

14 Jan 2025 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 4 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs154/7 Hobart Hurricanes19.4 overs155/6 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 36%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 4% to 63% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 37% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.6: C Stow to JR Doran, JR Doran out. Melbourne Renegades up from 42% to 61%.
2nd inns 13.5: TS Rogers to Nikhil Chaudhary, Nikhil Chaudhary out. Melbourne Renegades up from 33% to 50%.
2nd inns 19.3: TS Rogers to TH David, six by TH David. Hobart Hurricanes up from 59% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades154/7 Hobart Hurricanes155/6

Innings 1