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Women's Asia Cup · 2024 · Women
19 Jul 2024 · T20
Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United Arab Emirates more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 59%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 66% during the match (Nepal: 34% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esha Ozarun out · Rubina Chhetri, K Shrestha · Sabnam Rai 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rubina Chhetri, K Shrestha | 10 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 111.11 |
| Theertha Satishcaught and bowled · I Barma 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b I Barma | 9 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Rinitha Rajithbowled · Sabnam Rai 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sabnam Rai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
| S Dharnidharkacaught · K Kunwar · I Barma 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Kunwar · b I Barma | 13 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 108.33 |
| Kavisha Egodagecaught · Kabita Joshi · K Marasini 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kabita Joshi · b K Marasini | 22 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 84.62 |
| Khushi Sharmacaught · K Marasini · I Barma 2 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · K Marasini · b I Barma |
| 36 |
| 39 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 92.31 |
| Heena Hotchandanirun out · K Kunwar, I Barma · I Barma 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · K Kunwar, I Barma | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Vaishnave Maheshrun out · K Shrestha · Kabita Joshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · K Shrestha | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Rithika Rajithnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Lavanya Kenynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Kunwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sabnam Rai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Rubina Chhetri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| I Barma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Kabita Joshi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Sita Rana Magar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| K Marasini0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-11 (Esha Oza, 1.5) · 2-21 (Rinitha Rajith, 3.1) · 3-36 (Theertha Satish, 5.3) · 4-46 (S Dharnidharka, 7.2) · 5-78 (Kavisha Egodage, 14.1) · 6-107 (Heena Hotchandani, 18.1) · 7-107 (Khushi Sharma, 18.3) · 8-113 (Vaishnave Mahesh, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 21/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 27/2 |
| 5 | 7 | 34/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 38/3 |
| 7 | 7 | 45/3 |
| 8 | 7 | 52/4 |
| 9 | 3 | 55/4 |
| 10 | 2 | 57/4 |
| 11 | 4 | 61/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 65/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 72/4 |
| 14 | 6 | 78/4 |
| 15 | 8 | 86/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 90/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 94/5 |
| 18 | 12 | 106/5 |
| 19 | 4 | 110/7 |
| 20 | 5 | 115/8 |
Kabita Joshi: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sita Rana Magar: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rubina Chhetri: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bindu Rawal: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
