South AfricaversusEngland

England more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than South Africa (1,784 vs 1,570 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 8 and South Africa won 2
• South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 16%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 17% during the match (England: 83% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.2: L Filer to A Bosch, A Bosch out. England up from 83% to 89%.
2. 5.6: CE Dean to S Luus, S Luus out. England up from 86% to 91%.
3. 7.2: CE Dean to CL Tryon, CL Tryon out. England up from 91% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.