Sri LankaversusIndia

21 Dec 2025 · T20

Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy ACA-VDCA Cricket Stadium, Visakhapatnam · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 8 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs121/6 India14.4 overs122/2 Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy ACA-VDCA Cricket Stadium, Visakhapatnam ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

25%Sri Lanka75%India

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and Sri Lanka won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,616 vs 1,543 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 23%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 29% during the match (India: 71% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.5: K Goud to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. India up from 72% to 79%.
9.1: DB Sharma to GWHM Perera, GWHM Perera out. India up from 80% to 84%.
2nd inns 1.2: K Kavindi to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. Sri Lanka up from 6% to 9%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka121/6 India122/2

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

121/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnerun out · Richa Ghosh, Kranti Goud · Shree Charani 1 fours · 1 sixes	run out · Richa Ghosh, Kranti Goud	39	43	1	1	90.70
Chamari Atapattubowled · Kranti Goud 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kranti Goud	15	12	3	0	125.00
Hasini Pereracaught · Kranti Goud · Deepti Sharma 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kranti Goud · b Deepti Sharma	20	23	2	0	86.96
Harshitha Madavibowled · Shree Charani 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Shree Charani	21

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kranti Goud0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	23	1	7.67	0
Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	0	5.75	1
Deepti Sharma1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	20	1	5.00	0
Vaishnavi Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	0	4.00	0
Shree Charani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	30	1	7.50	1
Amanjot Kaur0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	4	10/0
3	9	19/1
4	4	23/1
5	8	31/1
6	0	31/1
7	3	34/1
8	8	42/1
9	7	49/1
10	6	55/2
11	8	63/2
12	7	70/2
13	3	73/2
14	4	77/2
15	8	85/2
16	6	91/3
17	4	95/3
18	9	104/4
19	7	111/5
20	10	121/6

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