Abu Dhabi Knight RidersversusMI Emirates

11 Dec 2025 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI Emirates won by 7 wickets

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders19.3 overs122/10 MI Emirates13.5 overs123/3 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders started on 42%; Abu Dhabi Knight Riders batted first.

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · MI Emirates is the rest

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (MI Emirates: 44% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: R Shepherd to PD Salt, PD Salt out. MI Emirates up from 45% to 55%.
3.1: Fazalhaq Farooqi to AD Hales, AD Hales out. MI Emirates up from 56% to 67%.
11.4: PHKD Mendis to SE Rutherford, SE Rutherford out. MI Emirates up from 73% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders122/10 MI Emirates123/3

Innings 1