Timor-LesteversusMyanmar

7 Nov 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Myanmar won by 10 wickets

Timor-Leste11.4 overs32/10 Myanmar3.4 overs34/0 Udayana Cricket Ground, Bali ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Myanmar more likely to win

42%Timor-Leste58%Myanmar

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Myanmar rate stronger than Timor-Leste (1,237 vs 1,185 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Timor-Leste started on 40%; Timor-Leste batted first.

Timor-Leste’s chance of winning (%) · Myanmar is the rest

Timor-Leste's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (Myanmar: 60% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: KK Lin Thu to Yahya Suhail, Yahya Suhail out. Myanmar up from 60% to 69%.
3.6: KK Lin Thu to Raihan Hossain, Raihan Hossain out. Myanmar up from 68% to 76%.
4.1: H Lin Oo to Rahat Kazi, Rahat Kazi out. Myanmar up from 76% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Timor-Leste32/10 Myanmar34/0

Innings 1

Timor-Leste

32/1011.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Timor-Leste batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	6s	SR
Rahat Kazicaught · Swann Htet Ko Ko · Htet Lin Oo 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Swann Htet Ko Ko · b Htet Lin Oo	7	13	1	53.85
Yahya Suhailcaught · Htet Lin Aung · Ko Ko Lin Thu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Htet Lin Aung · b Ko Ko Lin Thu	2	2	0	100.00
Raihan Hossaincaught · Swann Htet Ko Ko · Ko Ko Lin Thu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Swann Htet Ko Ko · b Ko Ko Lin Thu	3	10	0	30.00
Suhail Sattarcaught · Khin Aye · Ko Ko Lin Thu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Khin Aye · b Ko Ko Lin Thu	0	5	0	0.00
D Mendoncastumped · Swann Htet Ko Ko · Htet Lin Oo 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Swann Htet Ko Ko · b Htet Lin Oo	0	3	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Htet Lin Aung0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	2	0	2.00	2
Ko Ko Lin Thu1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	7	3	1.75	2
Htet Lin Oo0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	3	6.33	5
Thuya Aung2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	2	0	1	0.00	0
Pyae Phyo Wai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.4	0	4	2	2.40	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	3	5/1
3	8	13/1
4	2	15/2
5	2	17/4
6	0	17/5
7	9	26/6
8	2	28/6
9	0	28/6
10	2	30/6
11	0	30/8
12	2	32/10

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