Noakhali ExpressversusDhaka Capitals

7 Jan 2026 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Dhaka Capitals won by 7 wickets

Noakhali Express20.0 overs133/6 Dhaka Capitals14.1 overs134/3 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Noakhali Express started on 44%; Noakhali Express batted first.

Noakhali Express’s chance of winning (%) · Dhaka Capitals is the rest

Noakhali Express's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Dhaka Capitals: 53% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.2: Taskin Ahmed to Habibur Rahman, Habibur Rahman out. Dhaka Capitals up from 67% to 76%.
2nd inns 0.2: Hasan Mahmud to Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Rahmanullah Gurbaz out. Noakhali Express up from 26% to 37%.
2nd inns 2.5: Hasan Mahmud to Abdullah Al Mamun, Abdullah Al Mamun out. Noakhali Express up from 30% to 44%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Noakhali Express133/6 Dhaka Capitals134/3

Innings 1