Royal Challengers BengaluruversusMumbai Indians

12 Apr 2026 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 18 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs240/4 Mumbai Indians20.0 overs222/5 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 51%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 0% to 49%).

Biggest swings

0.3: TA Boult to V Kohli, six by V Kohli. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 51% to 57%.
2nd inns 7.1: Suyash Sharma to RD Rickelton, RD Rickelton out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 77% to 86%.
2nd inns 7.5: Suyash Sharma to Tilak Varma, Tilak Varma out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 87% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru240/4 Mumbai Indians222/5

Innings 1