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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
17 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
France more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
France started on 72%; France batted first.
France's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Croatia: 0% to 28%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noman Amjadretired out · JR Newton 5 fours · 1 sixes | retired out | 52 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 130.00 |
| Nasibullah Arabbowled · M Separovic 4 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b M Separovic | 31 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 193.75 |
| G Mckeonstumped · Rashid Hashmi · DJ Hall 2 fours · 6 sixes | stumped · Rashid Hashmi · b DJ Hall | 59 | 30 | 2 | 6 | 196.67 |
| Zada Sherrun out · Rashid Hashmi · Oliver Tilley 1 fours · 3 sixes | run out · Rashid Hashmi | 38 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 158.33 |
| Kamran Ahmadzainot out 0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 19* | 10 | 0 | 2 | 190.00 |
| Mohammad Khan Rafahnot out0 fours · 0 sixes |
| not out |
| 0* |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JR Newton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 8.75 | 1 | 0 |
| M Separovic0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| CM Carroll0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 11.50 | 3 | 1 |
| DJ Hall0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
| N Davidovic0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 22.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Oliver Tilley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-41 (Nasibullah Arab, 4.0) · 2-127 (G Mckeon, 12.0) · 3-167 (Noman Amjad, 17.0) · 4-207 (Zada Sher, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 14 | 41/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 47/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 57/1 |
| 7 | 12 | 69/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 74/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 84/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 87/1 |
| 11 | 34 | 121/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 127/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 136/2 |
| 14 | 8 | 144/2 |
| 15 | 14 | 158/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 162/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 167/3 |
| 18 | 17 | 184/3 |
| 19 | 14 | 198/3 |
| 20 | 10 | 208/4 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.