MexicoversusSuriname

8 Mar 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Mexico won by 9 runs

Mexico19.5 overs97/10 Suriname20.0 overs88/8 Jimmy Powell Oval, Cayman Islands ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Mexico more likely to win

64%Mexico36%Suriname

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Mexico rate stronger than Suriname (1,345 vs 1,286 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Mexico won 1 and Suriname won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Mexico started on 61%; Mexico batted first.

Mexico’s chance of winning (%) · Suriname is the rest

Mexico's chances ranged from 12% to 97% during the match (Suriname: 3% to 88%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.3: Gurpreet Singh to J Perry, J Perry out. Mexico up from 32% to 55%.
2nd inns 15.1: Amir Butt to G Singh, G Singh out. Mexico up from 45% to 66%.
2nd inns 17.2: Amir Butt to V Shaw, V Shaw out. Mexico up from 73% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Mexico97/10 Suriname88/8

Innings 1

Mexico

97/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mexico batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
R Galgalikarcaught · Arun Gokoel · Gavin Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Arun Gokoel · b Gavin Singh	1	4	0	0	25.00
Kaushal Kumarcaught · XSD Smith · Troy Dudnath 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · XSD Smith · b Troy Dudnath	5	10	0	0	50.00
Gurpreet Singh (2)run out · J Perry, XSD Smith · XSD Smith 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · J Perry, XSD Smith	27	28	2	0	96.43
S Kocharbowled · KN Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b KN Singh	6	10	0	0	60.00
Amir Buttcaught · S Bharratt · XSD Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · S Bharratt · b XSD Smith	8	21	0	0	38.10

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Troy Dudnath0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	9	2	2.25	2	0
Gavin Singh1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	1	3.00	2	0
KN Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	1	4.75	2	0
Arun Gokoel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	0	26	1	9.18	2	0
XSD Smith0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	18	4	4.50	1	1
YP Dayal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	12	0	12.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	4	7/1
3	2	9/2
4	5	14/2
5	7	21/2
6	3	24/2
7	2	26/3
8	0	26/3
9	4	30/3
10	7	37/3
11	6	43/3
12	4	47/4
13	15	62/4
14	5	67/5
15	12	79/5
16	6	85/7
17	1	86/8
18	3	89/9
19	4	93/9
20	4	97/10

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