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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
19 Oct 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 40%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tammy Beaumontbowled · Deepti Sharma2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Deepti Sharma | 22 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 51.16 |
 Amy Jonescaught · Smriti Mandhana · Deepti Sharma8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smriti Mandhana · b Deepti Sharma | 56 | 68 | 8 | 0 | 82.35 |
 Heather Knightrun out · Richa Ghosh, Amanjot Kaur · Sneh Rana15 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Richa Ghosh, Amanjot Kaur | 109 | 91 | 15 | 1 | 119.78 |
 Nat Sciver-Bruntcaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Shree Charani4 fours · 0 sixes |
England's chances ranged from 5% to 93% during the match (India: 7% to 95%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Shree Charani |
| 38 |
| 49 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 77.55 |
 Sophia Dunkleycaught · Deepti Sharma · Shree Charani1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Deepti Sharma · b Shree Charani | 15 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Emma Lambcaught · Smriti Mandhana · Deepti Sharma 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smriti Mandhana · b Deepti Sharma | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 110.00 |
|---|
 Alice Capseycaught · Harleen Deol · Deepti Sharma0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harleen Deol · b Deepti Sharma | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Charlie Deannot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 19* | 13 | 2 | 0 | 146.15 |
|---|
 Sophie Ecclestonerun out · Smriti Mandhana, Richa Ghosh · Shree Charani0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Smriti Mandhana, Richa Ghosh | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Linsey Smithnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Renuka Singh0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 4.63 | 3 | 1 |
| Kranti Goud0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Sneh Rana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Shree Charani0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 68 | 2 | 6.80 | 3 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 4 | 5.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Amanjot Kaur0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-73 (Tammy Beaumont, 16.0) · 2-98 (Amy Jones, 21.1) · 3-211 (Nat Sciver-Brunt, 38.5) · 4-249 (Heather Knight, 44.3) · 5-254 (Sophia Dunkley, 45.5) · 6-257 (Alice Capsey, 46.3) · 7-276 (Emma Lamb, 48.5) · 8-280 (Sophie Ecclestone, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 31/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 35/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 37/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 41/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 44/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 50/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 52/0 |
| 13 | 10 | 62/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 66/0 |
| 15 | 3 | 69/0 |
| 16 | 4 | 73/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 79/1 |
| 18 | 5 | 84/1 |
| 19 | 6 | 90/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 92/1 |
| 21 | 6 | 98/1 |
| 22 | 6 | 104/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 110/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 113/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 120/2 |
| 26 | 6 | 126/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 128/2 |
| 28 | 5 | 133/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 136/2 |
| 30 | 1 | 137/2 |
| 31 | 8 | 145/2 |
| 32 | 11 | 156/2 |
| 33 | 9 | 165/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 170/2 |
| 35 | 10 | 180/2 |
| 36 | 7 | 187/2 |
| 37 | 7 | 194/2 |
| 38 | 14 | 208/2 |
| 39 | 3 | 211/3 |
| 40 | 3 | 214/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 218/3 |
| 42 | 8 | 226/3 |
| 43 | 8 | 234/3 |
| 44 | 12 | 246/3 |
| 45 | 6 | 252/4 |
| 46 | 3 | 255/5 |
| 47 | 5 | 260/6 |
| 48 | 9 | 269/6 |
| 49 | 8 | 277/7 |
| 50 | 11 | 288/8 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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