Northern DistrictsversusOtago

25 Jan 2025 · T20

Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Otago won by 6 wickets

Northern Districts20.0 overs127/8 Otago14.5 overs128/4 Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 42%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (Otago: 52% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.4: JEI Prasad to SW Bates, SW Bates out. Northern Districts up from 21% to 30%.
2nd inns 4.2: AC Jayangani to IR James, IR James out. Northern Districts up from 17% to 26%.
2nd inns 5.4: JM Watkin to ON Gain, ON Gain out. Northern Districts up from 27% to 40%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts127/8 Otago128/4

Innings 1