BulgariaversusSweden

15 Oct 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Sweden won by 10 wickets

Bulgaria20.0 overs98/9 Sweden5.5 overs99/0 Moara Vlasiei Cricket Ground, Ilfov County ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sweden more likely to win

12%Bulgaria88%Sweden

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sweden rate stronger than Bulgaria (1,481 vs 1,147 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bulgaria started on 11%; Bulgaria batted first.

Bulgaria’s chance of winning (%) · Sweden is the rest

Bulgaria's chances ranged from 0% to 17% during the match (Sweden: 84% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: Malyun Yusuf to S Sarandeva, S Sarandeva out. Sweden up from 89% to 92%.
11.5: Anjali Natarajan to T Dissanayake, T Dissanayake out. Sweden up from 87% to 90%.
2nd inns 0.6: K Srandeva to A Vaidya, four by A Vaidya. Sweden up from 94% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bulgaria98/9 Sweden99/0

Innings 1

Bulgaria

98/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bulgaria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Stanislava Sarandevacaught · Zara Mohammad · Malyun Mohamed Yusuf 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Zara Mohammad · b Malyun Mohamed Yusuf	0	3	0	0	0.00
V Nikolovabowled · Hareer Chamto 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Hareer Chamto	3	17	0	0	17.65
Tanaya Dissanayakebowled · Anjali Natarajan 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Anjali Natarajan	35	38	3	0	92.11
D Ruynekovarun out · Hareer Chamto, J Sasi Rekha · J Sasi Rekha 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Hareer Chamto, J Sasi Rekha	6	13	0	0	46.15
K Ivanovabowled · J Sasi Rekha 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b J Sasi Rekha	0	1	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Malyun Mohamed Yusuf0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	10	1	2.50	2	0
Adan Gul0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	12	0	12.00	2	0
Hareer Chamto0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	10	1	2.50	3	0
J Sasi Rekha1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	26	1	6.50	3	0
Kanchan Rana0 maidens · 7 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	0	10	0	10.00	7	1
Anjali Natarajan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	1	6.00	2	0
Shreya Hariharan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	2	4.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	12	13/1
3	2	15/1
4	2	17/1
5	0	17/1
6	3	20/2
7	10	30/2
8	2	32/2
9	10	42/2
10	7	49/2
11	7	56/4
12	5	61/5
13	9	70/5
14	3	73/5
15	2	75/5
16	4	79/5
17	5	84/5
18	6	90/6
19	5	95/7
20	3	98/9

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