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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
10 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Bermuda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Mexico started on 20%; Mexico batted first.
Mexico's chances ranged from 0% to 26% during the match (Bermuda: 74% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shashikant Laxmancaught · D Sabir · J Proctor 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Sabir · b J Proctor | 10 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 76.92 |
| Rupesh Kumar Singhrun out · Tre Manders · Zeko Burgess 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tre Manders | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| KB Patilrun out · D Sabir, Sinclair Smith · Zeko Burgess 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · D Sabir, Sinclair Smith | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Luis Hermidacaught · Tre Manders · Kevon Fubler 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tre Manders · b Kevon Fubler | 7 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 35.00 |
| Praveen Santhanakrishnancaught · Kevon Fubler · J Proctor 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kevon Fubler · b J Proctor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Shantanu Kavericaught · Sinclair Smith · Kevon Fubler 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Sinclair Smith · b Kevon Fubler |
| 4 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| R Poojarybowled · Derrick Brangman 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Derrick Brangman | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| PK Mohanarangamcaught · Terryn Fray · Dion Stovell 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Terryn Fray · b Dion Stovell | 26 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 65.00 |
|---|
| Y Jasticaught · Kevon Fubler · Dion Stovell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kevon Fubler · b Dion Stovell | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Shoaib Rafiqnot out 0 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 24* | 11 | 0 | 3 | 218.18 |
|---|
| Pratik Singh Baisnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Proctor0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeko Burgess0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Derrick Brangman1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevon Fubler1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Dion Stovell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 9.33 | 1 | 0 |
| D Sabir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Rupesh Kumar Singh, 1.3) · 2-16 (KB Patil, 4.0) · 3-20 (Shashikant Laxman, 4.2) · 4-24 (Praveen Santhanakrishnan, 5.0) · 5-34 (Shantanu Kaveri, 7.1) · 6-35 (R Poojary, 8.1) · 7-45 (Luis Hermida, 12.0) · 8-58 (Y Jasti, 16.2) · 9-75 (PK Mohanarangam, 19.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 16/2 |
| 5 | 8 | 24/4 |
| 6 | 6 | 30/4 |
| 7 | 4 | 34/4 |
| 8 | 1 | 35/5 |
| 9 | 2 | 37/6 |
| 10 | 0 | 37/6 |
| 11 | 5 | 42/6 |
| 12 | 3 | 45/7 |
| 13 | 0 | 45/7 |
| 14 | 6 | 51/7 |
| 15 | 4 | 55/7 |
| 16 | 2 | 57/7 |
| 17 | 4 | 61/8 |
| 18 | 5 | 66/8 |
| 19 | 9 | 75/8 |
| 20 | 21 | 96/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.