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Sri Lanka tour of West Indies · 2026 · Men
3 Jun 2026 · ODI
Sabina Park · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 50%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Shai Hope · Roston Chase 9 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Roston Chase | 79 | 103 | 9 | 1 | 76.70 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Shai Hope · Jayden Seales 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Jayden Seales | 12 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 57.14 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Alzarri Joseph · Matthew Forde 4 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Alzarri Joseph · b Matthew Forde | 72 | 62 | 4 | 4 | 116.13 |
| Pavan Rathnayakecaught · Jayden Seales · Roston Chase 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jayden Seales · b Roston Chase | 24 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 63.16 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Jayden Seales · Matthew Forde 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jayden Seales · b Matthew Forde | 45 | 44 | 3 | 1 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 56%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 102.27 |
 Janith Liyanagenot out5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 44* | 29 | 5 | 1 | 151.72 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangacaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Jayden Seales1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Jayden Seales | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Milan Priyanathrun out · Shai Hope, Jayden Seales · Jayden Seales 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shai Hope, Jayden Seales | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshananot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 16 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Seales3 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 67 | 2 | 6.70 | 3 | 0 |
| Matthew Forde1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 4.89 | 2 | 0 |
| Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 4.75 | 2 | 2 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 7.22 | 8 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 47 | 2 | 4.70 | 1 | 0 |
1-22 (Kamindu Mendis, 6.5) · 2-158 (Kusal Mendis, 28.0) · 3-177 (Pathum Nissanka, 34.1) · 4-221 (Pavan Rathnayake, 40.3) · 5-285 (Charith Asalanka, 48.3) · 6-295 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 49.3) · 7-295 (Milan Priyanath, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 22/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 22/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 26/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 26/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 32/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 38/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 44/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 51/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 53/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 61/1 |
| 16 | 12 | 73/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 78/1 |
| 18 | 8 | 86/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 90/1 |
| 20 | 18 | 108/1 |
| 21 | 4 | 112/1 |
| 22 | 7 | 119/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 123/1 |
| 24 | 14 | 137/1 |
| 25 | 8 | 145/1 |
| 26 | 2 | 147/1 |
| 27 | 4 | 151/1 |
| 28 | 7 | 158/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 163/2 |
| 30 | 3 | 166/2 |
| 31 | 0 | 166/2 |
| 32 | 7 | 173/2 |
| 33 | 3 | 176/2 |
| 34 | 1 | 177/2 |
| 35 | 6 | 183/3 |
| 36 | 10 | 193/3 |
| 37 | 6 | 199/3 |
| 38 | 5 | 204/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 210/3 |
| 40 | 8 | 218/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 223/4 |
| 42 | 3 | 226/4 |
| 43 | 4 | 230/4 |
| 44 | 8 | 238/4 |
| 45 | 10 | 248/4 |
| 46 | 13 | 261/4 |
| 47 | 10 | 271/4 |
| 48 | 8 | 279/4 |
| 49 | 12 | 291/5 |
| 50 | 12 | 303/7 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
