SwitzerlandversusEstonia

2 Aug 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Switzerland won by 72 runs

Switzerland20.0 overs162/8 Estonia16.1 overs90/10 Estonian National Cricket and Rugby Field, Tallinn ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Switzerland more likely to win

56%Switzerland44%Estonia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Switzerland rate stronger than Estonia (1,457 vs 1,413 on our results rating)
Estonia are playing at home in Estonia
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Switzerland won 1 and Estonia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Switzerland started on 54%; Switzerland batted first.

Switzerland’s chance of winning (%) · Estonia is the rest

Switzerland's chances ranged from 46% to 100% during the match (Estonia: 0% to 54%).

Biggest swings

0.6: S Gooch to Faheem Nazir, Faheem Nazir out. Estonia up from 44% to 54%.
2nd inns 2.4: Ashwin Vinod to Habib Khan, Habib Khan out. Switzerland up from 73% to 81%.
2nd inns 3.3: Faheem Nazir to S Gooch, S Gooch out. Switzerland up from 83% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Switzerland162/8 Estonia90/10

Innings 1

Switzerland

162/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Switzerland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Faheem Nazirlbw · S Gooch 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b S Gooch	4	6	1	0	66.67
H Deshanlbw · Habib Khan 6 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Habib Khan	36	25	6	0	144.00
Ahmed Hassancaught · Bilal Masud · Muhammad Usman (4) 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Bilal Masud · b Muhammad Usman (4)	31	26	1	2	119.23
Arjun Vinodcaught and bowled · S Gooch 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b S Gooch	38	27	5	0	140.74
Qateel Zabiullahcaught · Arslan Amjad · Muhammad Usman (4) 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Arslan Amjad · b Muhammad Usman (4)	17	11	1	1	154.55

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
S Gooch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	2	3.75	1	0
P Gheewala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	27	0	13.50	0	0
Habib Khan0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	6	0
Zeeshan Ali (3)0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	2	7.00	2	0
Muhammad Usman (4)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	0	0
R Baruah0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	15	0	15.00	0	1
K Vislapuu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	28	0	14.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	10	14/1
3	3	17/1
4	17	34/1
5	5	39/1
6	11	50/1
7	12	62/1
8	6	68/2
9	5	73/2
10	4	77/2
11	15	92/2
12	7	99/3
13	15	114/3
14	7	121/3
15	13	134/3
16	4	138/4
17	4	142/5
18	7	149/5
19	5	154/7
20	8	162/8

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