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Photo: Marajozkee
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
19 Feb 2026 · T20
Eden Gardens, Kolkata · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 60%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Italy: 0% to 70%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Gian-Piero Meade · Ali Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gian-Piero Meade · b Ali Hasan | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
 Shai Hopebowled · CJPF Kalugamage6 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b CJPF Kalugamage | 75 | 46 | 6 | 4 | 163.04 |
 Shimron Hetmyercaught · Jon-Jon Smuts · Thomas Draca0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jon-Jon Smuts · b Thomas Draca | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Roston Chasecaught · AJ Mosca · Ben Manenti2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AJ Mosca · b Ben Manenti | 24 |
| 25 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 96.00 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · CJPF Kalugamage · Ben Manenti 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · CJPF Kalugamage · b Ben Manenti | 9 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Sherfane Rutherfordnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 24* | 15 | 2 | 1 | 160.00 |
|---|
 Jason Holdercaught · Harry Manenti · CJPF Kalugamage0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harry Manenti · b CJPF Kalugamage | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 128.57 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordenot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 16* | 8 | 3 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon-Jon Smuts0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Ali Hasan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Thomas Draca0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Grant Stewart0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Ben Manenti0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
| CJPF Kalugamage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Brandon King, 1.1) · 2-31 (Shimron Hetmyer, 4.1) · 3-95 (Roston Chase, 12.3) · 4-113 (Rovman Powell, 14.4) · 5-115 (Shai Hope, 15.1) · 6-137 (Jason Holder, 17.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 10 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 14 | 31/1 |
| 5 | 12 | 43/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 48/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 58/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 63/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 69/2 |
| 10 | 7 | 76/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 84/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 90/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 96/3 |
| 14 | 10 | 106/3 |
| 15 | 9 | 115/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 117/5 |
| 17 | 12 | 129/5 |
| 18 | 9 | 138/6 |
| 19 | 19 | 157/6 |
| 20 | 8 | 165/6 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Grant Stewart: Blue Square Thing · CC0
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
