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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
8 Jun 2025 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographScotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 63%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseycaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Karan KC | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Charlie Tearbowled · Lalit Rajbanshi 9 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 68 | 65 | 9 | 0 | 104.62 |
| Brandon McMullencaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Karan KC | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 38.46 |
| Richie Berringtonrun out · Aasif Sheikh, Gulsan Jha · Karan KC 6 fours · 4 sixes | run out · Aasif Sheikh, Gulsan Jha | 102 | 114 | 6 | 4 | 89.47 |
| Finlay McCreathcaught and bowled · Dipendra Singh Airee 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 17 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 73.91 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 29% to 99% during the match (Nepal: 1% to 71%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Matty Crosscaught · Aasif Sheikh · Dipendra Singh Airee 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Michael Leasknot out 12 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 96* | 62 | 12 | 3 | 154.84 |
|---|
 Mark Wattnot out0 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 21* | 9 | 0 | 3 | 233.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sompal Kami1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 75 | 0 | 8.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Karan KC2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 74 | 2 | 8.22 | 1 | 0 |
 Aarif Sheikh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 4.40 | 2 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 69 | 0 | 6.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 5.29 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (George Munsey, 1.5) · 2-25 (Brandon McMullen, 5.4) · 3-119 (Charlie Tear, 22.5) · 4-150 (Finlay McCreath, 29.3) · 5-162 (Matty Cross, 32.0) · 6-287 (Richie Berrington, 47.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 3 | 14 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 25/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 25/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 30/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 32/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 44/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 47/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 53/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 60/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 69/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 74/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 76/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 83/2 |
| 18 | 12 | 95/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 101/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 108/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 113/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 117/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 119/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 123/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 129/3 |
| 26 | 11 | 140/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 143/3 |
| 28 | 2 | 145/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 148/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 151/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 155/4 |
| 32 | 7 | 162/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 165/5 |
| 34 | 6 | 171/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 175/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 178/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 180/5 |
| 38 | 6 | 186/5 |
| 39 | 8 | 194/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 200/5 |
| 41 | 13 | 213/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 217/5 |
| 43 | 16 | 233/5 |
| 44 | 8 | 241/5 |
| 45 | 15 | 256/5 |
| 46 | 13 | 269/5 |
| 47 | 13 | 282/5 |
| 48 | 10 | 292/6 |
| 49 | 10 | 302/6 |
| 50 | 21 | 323/6 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
