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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Europe Division 1 Qualifier · 2025 · Women
23 Aug 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 68%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 69% to 100% during the match (Italy: 0% to 31%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Huntercaught · EL Bartram · C Mahamalage 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · EL Bartram · b C Mahamalage | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 111.11 |
| Gaby Lewisbowled · Ilenia Sims 6 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ilenia Sims | 42 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 113.51 |
| Orla Prendergastcaught · A Kontopirakis · ECB Moore 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Kontopirakis · b ECB Moore | 23 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 143.75 |
| Leah Paulcaught · Chloe Piparo · Ilenia Sims 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chloe Piparo · b Ilenia Sims | 11 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 73.33 |
| Laura Delanynot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 28* | 19 | 2 | 0 | 147.37 |
| Rebecca Stokell |
| not out |
| 38* |
| 24 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 158.33 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Mahamalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| S Kanankege0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 1 | 0 |
| ECB Moore0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 9.33 | 1 | 0 |
| A Kontopirakis0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 3 | 0 |
| EL Bartram0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Ilenia Sims0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Annie Wikman0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 2 | 0 |
| N Asuramanage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 1 | 0 |
| D Nanayakkara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-23 (Amy Hunter, 2.4) · 2-59 (Orla Prendergast, 7.4) · 3-96 (Gaby Lewis, 12.0) · 4-104 (Leah Paul, 13.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 14 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 29/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 39/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 47/1 |
| 7 | 11 | 58/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 61/2 |
| 9 | 11 | 72/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 74/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 82/2 |
| 12 | 14 | 96/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 104/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 105/4 |
| 15 | 5 | 110/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 119/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 125/4 |
| 18 | 17 | 142/4 |
| 19 | 13 | 155/4 |
| 20 | 11 | 166/4 |
Chloe Piparo: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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