Islamabad UnitedversusQuetta Gladiators

3 May 2025 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Quetta Gladiators won by 2 wickets

Islamabad United20.0 overs157/9 Quetta Gladiators19.5 overs159/8 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Islamabad United started on 57%; Islamabad United batted first.

Islamabad United’s chance of winning (%) · Quetta Gladiators is the rest

Islamabad United's chances ranged from 19% to 93% during the match (Quetta Gladiators: 7% to 82%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.3: Agha Salman to Faheem Ashraf, Faheem Ashraf out. Islamabad United up from 31% to 58%.
2nd inns 19.3: Muhammad Shahzad to Hassan Nawaz, six by Hassan Nawaz. Quetta Gladiators up from 7% to 30%.
2nd inns 19.5: Muhammad Shahzad to Hassan Nawaz, six by Hassan Nawaz. Quetta Gladiators up from 38% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Islamabad United157/9 Quetta Gladiators159/8

Innings 1