**Edgbaston**
Photo: Will Noakes
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

Birmingham BearsversusLeicestershire

19 Jul 2024 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 72 runs

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs194/5 Leicestershire16.4 overs122/10 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 66%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Leicestershire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 66% to 100% during the match (Leicestershire: 0% to 34%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.4: ZGF Foulkes to SG Budinger, SG Budinger out. Birmingham Bears up from 70% to 79%.
2nd inns 2.3: CN Miles to RK Patel, RK Patel out. Birmingham Bears up from 76% to 85%.
2nd inns 6.5: DR Briggs to PSP Handscomb, PSP Handscomb out. Birmingham Bears up from 90% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears194/5 Leicestershire122/10

Innings 1