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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
14 Jun 2024 · T20
Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photographRecorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 73%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (New Zealand: 27% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronak Patelcaught · Devon Conway · Mitchell Santner 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b Mitchell Santner | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
| Simon Ssesazilbw · Trent Boult 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Trent Boult | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Robinson Obuyabowled · Trent Boult 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Trent Boult | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| AR Ramjanilbw · Tim Southee 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Tim Southee | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kenneth Waiswabowled · Lockie Ferguson 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lockie Ferguson | 11 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 61.11 |
| Riazat Ali Shah |
| caught · Devon Conway · b Rachin Ravindra |
| 2 |
| 13 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 15.38 |
| Dinesh Nakranicaught · Glenn Phillips · Rachin Ravindra 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Rachin Ravindra | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
| Brian Masabanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 20 | 0 | 0 | 15.00 |
|---|
| Fred Achelamlbw · Tim Southee 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Tim Southee | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
| Juma Miyagilbw · Tim Southee 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Tim Southee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Cosmas Kyewutacaught · Daryl Mitchell · Mitchell Santner 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Mitchell Santner | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trent Boult1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Tim Southee1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2.18 | 3 | 0 |
 Lockie Ferguson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 2.25 | 2 | 0 |
 Rachin Ravindra1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Simon Ssesazi, 0.3) · 2-1 (Robinson Obuya, 0.4) · 3-2 (AR Ramjani, 3.4) · 4-10 (Ronak Patel, 6.5) · 5-15 (Kenneth Waiswa, 7.5) · 6-23 (Riazat Ali Shah, 11.2) · 7-26 (Dinesh Nakrani, 13.3) · 8-39 (Fred Achelam, 17.3) · 9-39 (Juma Miyagi, 17.4) · 10-40 (Cosmas Kyewuta, 18.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/2 |
| 3 | 0 | 2/2 |
| 4 | 1 | 3/3 |
| 5 | 4 | 7/3 |
| 6 | 2 | 9/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 11/4 |
| 8 | 4 | 15/5 |
| 9 | 4 | 19/5 |
| 10 | 2 | 21/5 |
| 11 | 2 | 23/5 |
| 12 | 2 | 25/6 |
| 13 | 1 | 26/6 |
| 14 | 1 | 27/7 |
| 15 | 2 | 29/7 |
| 16 | 8 | 37/7 |
| 17 | 2 | 39/7 |
| 18 | 1 | 40/9 |
| 19 | 0 | 40/10 |
Lockie Ferguson: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Trent Boult: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
