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Pakistan T20I Tri-Series · 2025/26 · Men
20 Nov 2025 · T20
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 50%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 25% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 75%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Kushal Janith Perera · Wanindu Hasaranga 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kushal Janith Perera · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 49 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 116.67 |
| Tadiwanashe Marumanicaught and bowled · Mahesh Theekshana 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 166.67 |
 Brendan Taylorbowled · Eshan Malinga1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Eshan Malinga | 11 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 122.22 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Dasun Shanaka · Dushmantha Chameera3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Dasun Shanaka · b Dushmantha Chameera | 47 | 32 | 3 | 2 | 146.88 |
| bowled · b Wanindu Hasaranga |
| 18 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 163.64 |
| Tony Munyongalbw · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Tashinga Musekiwabowled · Eshan Malinga 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Eshan Malinga | 11 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 157.14 |
|---|
| Brad Evansrun out · Kusal Mendis, Wanindu Hasaranga · Eshan Malinga 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kusal Mendis, Wanindu Hasaranga | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Tinotenda Maposanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Graeme Cremernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 3 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-26 (Tadiwanashe Marumani, 3.1) · 2-40 (Brendan Taylor, 5.3) · 3-101 (Brian Bennett, 12.4) · 4-124 (Ryan Burl, 15.4) · 5-124 (Tony Munyonga, 15.5) · 6-141 (Sikandar Raza, 17.1) · 7-147 (Brad Evans, 18.1) · 8-154 (Tashinga Musekiwa, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 26/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 31/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 38/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 43/2 |
| 7 | 9 | 52/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 56/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 61/2 |
| 10 | 10 | 71/2 |
| 11 | 13 | 84/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 94/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 103/3 |
| 14 | 10 | 113/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 116/3 |
| 16 | 9 | 125/5 |
| 17 | 16 | 141/5 |
| 18 | 5 | 146/6 |
| 19 | 9 | 155/8 |
| 20 | 7 | 162/8 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
