Rajasthan RoyalsversusLucknow Super Giants

24 Mar 2024 · T20

Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajasthan Royals won by 20 runs

Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs193/4 Lucknow Super Giants20.0 overs173/6 Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajasthan Royals started on 46%; Rajasthan Royals batted first.

Rajasthan Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Lucknow Super Giants is the rest

Rajasthan Royals's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (Lucknow Super Giants: 0% to 58%).

Biggest swings

1.6: Naveen-ul-Haq to JC Buttler, JC Buttler out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 47% to 58%.
2nd inns 15.2: YS Chahal to N Pooran, six by N Pooran. Lucknow Super Giants up from 20% to 29%.
2nd inns 16.1: Sandeep Sharma to KL Rahul, KL Rahul out. Rajasthan Royals up from 74% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajasthan Royals193/4 Lucknow Super Giants173/6

Innings 1