**Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium**
Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2024 · Women

ThailandversusMalaysia

20 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Thailand won by 22 runs

Thailand20.0 overs133/6 Malaysia20.0 overs111/8 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

65%Thailand35%Malaysia

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 4 and Malaysia won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Malaysia (1,531 vs 1,519 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 62%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Malaysia: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.6: S Laomi to Siow Tzin Yee, Siow Tzin Yee out. Thailand up from 29% to 40%.
2nd inns 13.4: T Putthawong to Mahirah Izzati Ismail, Mahirah Izzati Ismail out. Thailand up from 45% to 57%.
2nd inns 15.1: N Boochatham to Wan Julia, Ainna Hamizah Hashim out. Thailand up from 56% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand133/6 Malaysia111/8

Innings 1

Thailand

133/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nattaya Boochathamcaught · Mahirah Ismail · Aisya Eleesa 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mahirah Ismail · b Aisya Eleesa	18	10	4	0	180.00
N Chaihanbowled · Suabika Manivannan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Suabika Manivannan	0	2	0	0	0.00
Nannapat Koncharoenkaicaught · Aisya Eleesa · Mahirah Ismail 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aisya Eleesa · b Mahirah Ismail	40	35	6	0	114.29
T Putthawonglbw · Mahirah Ismail 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Mahirah Ismail	9	16	1	0	56.25

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ainna Hamizah Hashim0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	0	8.33	2	0
Suabika Manivannan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	1	7.00	0	0
Aisya Eleesa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	0	0
Winifred Duraisingam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	0	0
Mahirah Ismail0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	3	4.00	1	0
Amalin Sorfina0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	0	6.50	1	0
Elsa Hunter0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	16	16/0
2	5	21/1
3	5	26/2
4	9	35/2
5	6	41/2
6	3	44/2
7	2	46/3
8	12	58/3
9	4	62/3
10	6	68/3
11	11	79/3
12	7	86/3
13	4	90/3
14	5	95/5
15	9	104/5
16	5	109/5
17	5	114/6
18	5	119/6
19	8	127/6
20	6	133/6

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