New ZealandversusPakistan

14 Jan 2024 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 21 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs194/8 Pakistan19.3 overs173/10 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

66%New Zealand34%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Pakistan (1,634 vs 1,536 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 6 and New Zealand won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 64%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 56% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 44%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.4: AF Milne to Fakhar Zaman, Fakhar Zaman out. New Zealand up from 57% to 70%.
2nd inns 11.5: BV Sears to Iftikhar Ahmed, Iftikhar Ahmed out. New Zealand up from 75% to 85%.
2nd inns 12.3: IS Sodhi to Azam Khan, Azam Khan out. New Zealand up from 85% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand194/8 Pakistan173/10

Innings 1

New Zealand

194/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Finn Allenbowled · Usama Mir 7 fours · 5 sixes	bowled · b Usama Mir	74	41	7	5	180.49
Devon Conwaycaught · Fakhar Zaman · Aamer Jamal 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Aamer Jamal	20	15	3	0	133.33
Kane Williamsonretired hurt · Aamer Jamal 3 fours · 1 sixes	retired hurt	26*	15	3	1	173.33
Daryl Mitchellbowled · Abbas Afridi 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Abbas Afridi	17	10	1	1	170.00
Glenn Phillipscaught · Saim Ayub · Haris Rauf 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Saim Ayub · b Haris Rauf	13

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	0	7.50	0
Haris Rauf0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	3	9.50	2
Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	2	10.75	2
Aamer Jamal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	1	10.50	1
Usama Mir0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	12	15/0
3	15	30/0
4	18	48/0
5	11	59/0
6	6	65/1
7	11	76/1
8	9	85/1
9	13	98/1
10	13	111/1
11	11	122/1
12	6	128/1
13	9	137/2
14	10	147/3
15	6	153/3
16	4	157/3
17	11	168/4
18	14	182/4
19	5	187/7
20	7	194/8

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