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Sri Lanka tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Men
14 Nov 2025 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 32%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankarun out · Mohammad Rizwan, Mohammad Wasim, Naseem Shah · Abrar Ahmed 4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mohammad Rizwan, Mohammad Wasim, Naseem Shah | 24 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 77.42 |
| Kamil Misharastumped · Mohammad Rizwan · Abrar Ahmed 2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Mohammad Rizwan · b Abrar Ahmed | 27 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 69.23 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Mohammad Nawaz · Abrar Ahmed 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Nawaz · b Abrar Ahmed | 20 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 71.43 |
| Sadeera Samarawickramabowled · Haris Rauf 3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Haris Rauf | 42 | 52 | 3 | 1 | 80.77 |
| Charith Asalankalbw · Abrar Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Abrar Ahmed | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (Pakistan: 48% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Janith Liyanagecaught · Mohammad Nawaz · Mohammad Wasim2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Nawaz · b Mohammad Wasim | 54 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Saim Ayub · Haris Rauf 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Haris Rauf | 44 | 38 | 4 | 2 | 115.79 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasaranganot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 37* | 26 | 3 | 0 | 142.31 |
|---|
| Dushmantha Chameeralbw · Haris Rauf 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Haris Rauf | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Pramod Madushannot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 15 | 2 | 0 | 73.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Naseem Shah1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 63 | 0 | 6.30 | 3 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 66 | 3 | 6.60 | 7 | 0 |
| Mohammad Wasim0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 5.00 | 4 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 3 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 6.29 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-51 (Pathum Nissanka, 9.5) · 2-62 (Kamil Mishara, 13.1) · 3-90 (Kusal Mendis, 19.2) · 4-98 (Charith Asalanka, 21.2) · 5-159 (Sadeera Samarawickrama, 31.4) · 6-232 (Kamindu Mendis, 42.3) · 7-241 (Janith Liyanage, 44.0) · 8-244 (Dushmantha Chameera, 44.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 39/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 41/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 46/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 48/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 51/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 52/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 57/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 62/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 64/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 71/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 73/2 |
| 17 | 8 | 81/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 84/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 90/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 92/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 94/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 99/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 100/4 |
| 24 | 8 | 108/4 |
| 25 | 9 | 117/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 121/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 127/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 128/4 |
| 29 | 10 | 138/4 |
| 30 | 8 | 146/4 |
| 31 | 10 | 156/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 160/5 |
| 33 | 6 | 166/5 |
| 34 | 11 | 177/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 179/5 |
| 36 | 8 | 187/5 |
| 37 | 9 | 196/5 |
| 38 | 4 | 200/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 206/5 |
| 40 | 7 | 213/5 |
| 41 | 14 | 227/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 231/5 |
| 43 | 2 | 233/6 |
| 44 | 8 | 241/7 |
| 45 | 7 | 248/8 |
| 46 | 6 | 254/8 |
| 47 | 4 | 258/8 |
| 48 | 9 | 267/8 |
| 49 | 3 | 270/8 |
| 50 | 18 | 288/8 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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