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North America T20 Cup · 2025 · Men
21 Apr 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Canada more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bahamas started on 39%; Bahamas batted first.
Bahamas's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (Canada: 60% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Taylorcaught · Shreyas Movva · Jaskaran Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Jaskaran Singh | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Festus Benncaught · Ravinderpal Singh · Sukhjinder Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ravinderpal Singh · b Sukhjinder Singh | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
| RA Tappincaught · Akhil Kumar · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Akhil Kumar · b Saad Bin Zafar | 6 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 23.08 |
| K Hindscaught · Shreyas Movva · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Saad Bin Zafar | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| E Duffcaught and bowled · Sukhjinder Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Sukhjinder Singh | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| D Wheatleycaught · Jaskaran Singh · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Jaskaran Singh · b Saad Bin Zafar |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| J Jemisonbowled · Kaleem Sana 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Sandeep Goud (2)bowled · Harsh Thaker 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Harsh Thaker | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| Antonio Harriscaught · Shreyas Movva · Harsh Thaker 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Harsh Thaker | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 109.09 |
|---|
| R Smithbowled · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| R Pattennot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 7 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaskaran Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Sukhjinder Singh1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Akhil Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Marc Taylor, 2.0) · 2-10 (Festus Benn, 6.2) · 3-11 (K Hinds, 8.0) · 4-12 (RA Tappin, 9.3) · 5-12 (D Wheatley, 9.4) · 6-12 (E Duff, 10.2) · 7-15 (Sandeep Goud (2), 12.0) · 8-40 (Antonio Harris, 15.3) · 9-40 (J Jemison, 16.1) · 10-41 (R Smith, 16.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 7/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 8/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 10/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 10/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 11/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 12/3 |
| 10 | 0 | 12/5 |
| 11 | 3 | 15/6 |
| 12 | 0 | 15/7 |
| 13 | 6 | 21/7 |
| 14 | 10 | 31/7 |
| 15 | 8 | 39/7 |
| 16 | 1 | 40/8 |
| 17 | 1 | 41/10 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
