Chattogram ChallengersversusComilla Victorians

2 Feb 2024 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Comilla Victorians won by 7 wickets

Chattogram Challengers16.3 overs72/10 Comilla Victorians9.2 overs73/3 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chattogram Challengers started on 39%; Chattogram Challengers batted first.

Chattogram Challengers’s chance of winning (%) · Comilla Victorians is the rest

Chattogram Challengers's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (Comilla Victorians: 60% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: RA Reifer to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Comilla Victorians up from 60% to 72%.
5.5: Tanvir Islam to Shykat Ali, Shykat Ali out. Comilla Victorians up from 77% to 86%.
7.2: Tanvir Islam to TC Bruce, TC Bruce out. Comilla Victorians up from 80% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chattogram Challengers72/10 Comilla Victorians73/3

Innings 1