South AfricaversusIndia

11 Dec 2025 · T20

Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, New Chandigarh · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 51 runs

South Africa20.0 overs213/4 India19.1 overs162/10 Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, New Chandigarh ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

10%South Africa90%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,853 vs 1,544 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and South Africa won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 9%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 8% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 92%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.6: M Jansen to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. South Africa up from 42% to 61%.
2nd inns 3.5: M Jansen to SA Yadav, SA Yadav out. South Africa up from 59% to 73%.
2nd inns 7.3: OEG Baartman to AR Patel, AR Patel out. South Africa up from 69% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa213/4 India162/10

Innings 1

South Africa

213/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Quinton de Kockrun out · Jitesh Sharma · Varun Chakravarthy 5 fours · 7 sixes	run out · Jitesh Sharma	90	46	5	7	195.65
Reeza Hendricksbowled · Varun Chakravarthy 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Varun Chakravarthy	8	10	0	1	80.00
Aiden Markramcaught · Axar Patel · Varun Chakravarthy 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Axar Patel · b Varun Chakravarthy	29	26	1	2	111.54
Dewald Breviscaught · Tilak Varma · Axar Patel 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tilak Varma · b Axar Patel

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	54	0	13.50	9
Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	0	11.25	2
Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	0
Axar Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	1	9.00	1
Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	34	0	11.33	3
Shivam Dube0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	0	9.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	2	10/0
3	12	22/0
4	16	38/0
5	3	41/1
6	12	53/1
7	8	61/1
8	9	70/1
9	9	79/1
10	11	90/1
11	18	108/1
12	13	121/2
13	9	130/2
14	17	147/2
15	9	156/2
16	4	160/3
17	4	164/4
18	15	179/4
19	16	195/4
20	18	213/4

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.